Observed access pressure

Plan around recorded demand, without pretending it is capacity.

Daily sub-ICB forecasts sit beside — never combined with — telephone, online, workforce, population, experience, deprivation, and respiratory context.

Generated preview data · schema-compatible · no public source rows in this build

Forecast horizon
Coverage gate97.2% populationeligible

01 / FORECAST

Recorded appointments

Daily predictions · p10, p50, p90
Model: seasonal-naive-preview

Daily recorded appointment forecastMedian forecast with a p10 to p90 uncertainty band over the selected horizon.
Latest observed history Forecast p50 p10–p90 range

Forecasts estimate future recorded appointments. They do not measure slots, cancellations, staffing workload, or available capacity.

02 / CONTEXT LANES

Signals kept separate

Latest available public periods

Recorded appointments

1.04m

Latest published month · not available capacity

Telephone

71%

Calls answered · separate channel

Online consultation

92.4k

Submissions · never added to appointments

Practice workforce

4,182 FTE

Lagged context · not converted into capacity

Registered population

2.19m

July list size · denominator context

Patient experience

74%

2026 survey · explanatory context only

Deprivation

Decile 4

Corrected IMD 2025 · not a forecast input

Respiratory surveillance

Week 27

Lagged regional context · corrected release